The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

Tariffs on Indian exports to the United States will surge to 50 percent by late August, as part of an effort by President Trump to pressure Russia into resolving its war in Ukraine.

For years, India has balanced close partnerships with both Washington and Moscow, even throughout Ukraine war. Trump is finally demanding it picks a side